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STOREBRAND
Patience set to be rewarded
While the drop in Storebrand’s Solvency II ratio in Q1
will delay distributions of excess capital, the long-term
value remains intact and we expect excess capital to
eventually be distributed to shareholders from 2022. To
reflect further AUM deterioration towards the end of
March, we have trimmed our 2021e EPS by ~2%.
Following a change of analyst, we have reduced our
target price to NOK70 (75), but reiterate our BUY.
Solvency hit by Covid-19… We expect a 24%-points drop in the Solvency II ratio to
150% in Q1 (report due 07:30 CET on 30 April). The main driver is the collapse in
long-term interest rates, being down ~100bp QOQ, accompanied by widening spreads
and deteriorating equity markets. Lowered equity stress and volatility adjustments
should however compensate for some of the reduction, and transitional measures
should help counteract a similar drastic decline to the Solvency II ratio including
transitionals – which we forecast to decline by 10%-points to 166%.
… postponing capital release. A Solvency II ratio of 150% leaves a 30%-points
shortfall to the 180% ‘capital distribution’ threshold, thus pushing the distribution of
extraordinary dividends out in time – in our view to 2022. For 2019 dividends, we
expect regulators to remain hesitant towards distributions given the prevailing
uncertainties, and see a risk to distributions of the ordinary DPS for 2019.
Estimates trimmed, Q1e adj. EPS of NOK0.7. To reflect further deterioration in
financial markets towards the end of March and a lower asset base, we have cut our
2021e EPS by 2%. We expect a Q1 adj. EPS of NOK0.7, caused by negative equity
returns, lower interest rates, and higher credit spreads, particularly having an adverse
effect on the guaranteed pensions in SPP and its ~NOK27bn company portfolio.
BUY reiterated, target price reduced to NOK70 (75). While we acknowledge that
the near-term outlook (e.g. high market volatility and lowered interest rates) looks
demanding, we see ample longer-term upside potential to the current share price,
underpinned by our SOTP/share of NOK70. Prior to the plummeting of interest rates,
Storebrand was on the threshold of high and increasing capital distributions. While the
solvency capital headwinds will delay the start of this phase, we believe Storebrand
will eventually start releasing capital, and patience will be rewarded. Until then, we
consider the ~8% dividend yield compelling.
BUY
TP: NOK70.0
STB versus OSEBX

Hva er bakt inn i forventningene til kvartalsfremleggelsen?

Fin stigning siste tiden. Uavhengig av utbytte så er dette en av aksjene en bør ha som fundament i sin portefølje! Penger på gaten helt til 70 kr aksjen.

Mye å hente her enda...DnB skjønte ikke kursmålet til Kepler. DnB kommer med nytt kursmål..

En liten korreksjon etter flere dager i pluss må til. Satser på 70kr før året er omme.