LNG No upside unless BP FLNG
GOLAR LNG No upside unless BP FLNG Yesterday’s share price decline of ~USD9/share was equal to our Ophir valuation and the current share price already reflects an FLNG Hilli utilisation increase, hence we believe BP FLNG FID is needed for upside in the stock. The key challenge going forward would be to create certainty around FID dates in Africa following two cancelled projects and one delayed with 50% utilisation. Golar LNG guides for BP FLNG FID end- 2018, which would be the next catalyst in addition to LNG shipping market recovery and FLNG Hilli vessel utilisation rising to 100%, which seems fair to assume at USD9/mnBtu gas prices and USD80/bbl oil prices. We keep our BUY; target price cut to USD39 (USD49).
We have lowered 2018e EBITDA by 23% but kept 2019–2020e unchanged.
Key challenge going forward would be to create certainty around FID dates. Golar LNG has announced three projects in Africa since 2015, two of which have been cancelled and one 50% utilised, hence it would be important to regain investor confidence in this area. FSRU Tundra (in Ghana) was announced in November 2015 and later cancelled in 2017 and Fortuna FLNG (Equatorial Guinea) was announced in May 2015 (with first expected FID in H1 2016), which was now likely cancelled in May 2018. FLNG Hilli (Cameroon), when announced in December 2014, was scheduled to produce gas by H1 2017, which now, 1 June 2018, is set to operate at 50% utilisation.
LNG shipping market recovery and Hilli vessel utilisation near-term catalysts. Catalysts would be a strengthening of LNG shipping markets as we forecast TFDE rates to increase from USD46k/day in 2018e to USD78k/day by 2020e and FLNG vessel utilisation to increase to 100% (from 50%) ahead of future FLNG FIDs. Reiterate BUY, target price lowered to USD39 (from USD49) based on 1.0x our oneyear forward SOTP of USD39 (down from USD49) as we now exclude Fortuna FLNG (USD9/share). Our current SOTP is USD17.4 (USD18.3) and our target price reflects an FLNG Hilli utilisation increase of USD10/share and BP FLNG of USD12/share.
We have lowered 2018e EBITDA by 23% but kept 2019–2020e unchanged.
Key challenge going forward would be to create certainty around FID dates. Golar LNG has announced three projects in Africa since 2015, two of which have been cancelled and one 50% utilised, hence it would be important to regain investor confidence in this area. FSRU Tundra (in Ghana) was announced in November 2015 and later cancelled in 2017 and Fortuna FLNG (Equatorial Guinea) was announced in May 2015 (with first expected FID in H1 2016), which was now likely cancelled in May 2018. FLNG Hilli (Cameroon), when announced in December 2014, was scheduled to produce gas by H1 2017, which now, 1 June 2018, is set to operate at 50% utilisation.
LNG shipping market recovery and Hilli vessel utilisation near-term catalysts. Catalysts would be a strengthening of LNG shipping markets as we forecast TFDE rates to increase from USD46k/day in 2018e to USD78k/day by 2020e and FLNG vessel utilisation to increase to 100% (from 50%) ahead of future FLNG FIDs. Reiterate BUY, target price lowered to USD39 (from USD49) based on 1.0x our oneyear forward SOTP of USD39 (down from USD49) as we now exclude Fortuna FLNG (USD9/share). Our current SOTP is USD17.4 (USD18.3) and our target price reflects an FLNG Hilli utilisation increase of USD10/share and BP FLNG of USD12/share.
Redigert 19.01.2021 kl 16:03
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tapogvinn
01.06.2018 kl 13:31
1764
DnB har begravd Fortuna-prosjektet, mens både Ophir og Golar uttaler at de jobber videre med å finne en løsning. Slik aksjen reagerte i går, må man nå se på dette prosjektet som en ren opsjon.
Forøvrig har nok DnB rett i at det er lite oppside i aksjen dersom Golar har vunnet sin siste kontrakt.
I følge selskapet er det imidlertid stor interesse for deres tjenester.
Forøvrig har nok DnB rett i at det er lite oppside i aksjen dersom Golar har vunnet sin siste kontrakt.
I følge selskapet er det imidlertid stor interesse for deres tjenester.