B2H slukes av AXA’s John Fredriksen
Når kjeme meldingo om at AXA kjøper opp B2H ?
Kar vert da tå konsolideringa adle snakka om i inkassobransje ?
Kar vert da tå konsolideringa adle snakka om i inkassobransje ?
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 02:09
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i siste kvartal presentasjon sa adm i Hoist en konkurent til både B2h og Axa de ser for seg betydlig konsoidering i bransjen . og de vil ikke bli spist opp men nærere sagt være med på øke marked cap kjøpe opp selskaper som bli en betydlig konkurrent i fremtiden .
..EMIL..
28.11.2018 kl 21:28
1923
Hoppas verkligen ikke det händer. B2H är i för många jalla jalla land.
holder jeg med deg, Axa er et mye bedre selskap en b2h .
det varer ikke lenge, Axa kommer for fullt 2019
Arctic etter kapitalmarkedsdagen.
Q3/18: Overreaction on revaluations, 8% dive is a buying opportunity
B2H delivered an EPS of NOK 0.39 in Q3, 8% below our estimate. Revenues were 5% above our expectations and opex 5% below, but due to negative changes in portfolio cash flow estimates and an unrealized currency loss of NOK 19m the P&L was on the soft side. The EBITDA and Cash EBITDA was 3%/4% below expectations. Overall growth continues to be strong and the EBIT margin increased from 48% in Q2 to 50% in Q3. We find the 8% share price drop to be an overreaction to the revaluations. Although this is not what one would have hoped for given the weak sector performance and uncertainties spread regarding the sector. We view revaluations as a natural part of B2H´s business given the accounting methods B2H has to apply, and see a +/- 0.5% of BV or +/-5% of cash collections as "normal" volatility. In addition, we acknowledge that there may have been higher expectations to the Capital Markets Day that could have contributed to a disappointment. All in all, we view today´s dip as a buying opportunity.
· Positive with CMD, new ROI target bodes well for discipline. We view it as positive that the company chose to host a CMD and B2H is better than most peers on transparency. The new Return on Investments (excluding tax and overhead cost in Oslo and Luxembourg) of minimum 14% was new and shows a clear intention with regards to price discipline going forward. Further, it was expected that they would update the market on the equity ratio, and a minimum of 25% was as expected in our view. There was some expectation that the company could consider a higher payout ratio going forward, but this was kept unchanged at 20-30% and could have contributed to the disappointment today.
· P&L in line adjusted for unrealized currency loss. Operating income of NOK 795m was 5% above estimates, but due to negative changes in portfolio cash flow estimates of NOK 53m net operating revenues fell 2% short. This mainly related to below the curve performance on unsecured portfolios in most regions totaling NOK 24m (temporary deviation) and negative revaluations of secured portfolios of NOK 34m, due to a timing effect. Total expenses were 5% lower than anticipated, mainly due to lower external costs. The contribution from associated companies (mainly the JV with EOS in Romania) was weaker than we expected at NOK 4m vs NOK 18m. Net financials were NOK 31m higher than expected, mainly due to a NOK 19m unrealized exchange loss in the quarter.
· Higher investments in seasonally slow quarter. Total investments came in at NOK 988m, higher than our NOK 700m estimate. Following this the equity ratio came in just below expectations at 26.5% and ERC came in a tick higher at NOK 20.6bn vs our NOK 20.3bn estimate.
· Share price closing in on IPO level. The whole sector has been weak YTD and B2H is down 35%. The current level is only 12% above the IPO pricing two and a half years ago at NOK 12 per share. Since then the company has made significant investments, improved cash flow and profitability, as well as gained access to some of the largest markets in Europe. Arguably the value of the company should be significantly higher. We have only made minor estimate revisions to both earnings and cash flow and B2H remains a conviction Buy in our view - we reiterate NOK 25 target price.
Q3/18: Overreaction on revaluations, 8% dive is a buying opportunity
B2H delivered an EPS of NOK 0.39 in Q3, 8% below our estimate. Revenues were 5% above our expectations and opex 5% below, but due to negative changes in portfolio cash flow estimates and an unrealized currency loss of NOK 19m the P&L was on the soft side. The EBITDA and Cash EBITDA was 3%/4% below expectations. Overall growth continues to be strong and the EBIT margin increased from 48% in Q2 to 50% in Q3. We find the 8% share price drop to be an overreaction to the revaluations. Although this is not what one would have hoped for given the weak sector performance and uncertainties spread regarding the sector. We view revaluations as a natural part of B2H´s business given the accounting methods B2H has to apply, and see a +/- 0.5% of BV or +/-5% of cash collections as "normal" volatility. In addition, we acknowledge that there may have been higher expectations to the Capital Markets Day that could have contributed to a disappointment. All in all, we view today´s dip as a buying opportunity.
· Positive with CMD, new ROI target bodes well for discipline. We view it as positive that the company chose to host a CMD and B2H is better than most peers on transparency. The new Return on Investments (excluding tax and overhead cost in Oslo and Luxembourg) of minimum 14% was new and shows a clear intention with regards to price discipline going forward. Further, it was expected that they would update the market on the equity ratio, and a minimum of 25% was as expected in our view. There was some expectation that the company could consider a higher payout ratio going forward, but this was kept unchanged at 20-30% and could have contributed to the disappointment today.
· P&L in line adjusted for unrealized currency loss. Operating income of NOK 795m was 5% above estimates, but due to negative changes in portfolio cash flow estimates of NOK 53m net operating revenues fell 2% short. This mainly related to below the curve performance on unsecured portfolios in most regions totaling NOK 24m (temporary deviation) and negative revaluations of secured portfolios of NOK 34m, due to a timing effect. Total expenses were 5% lower than anticipated, mainly due to lower external costs. The contribution from associated companies (mainly the JV with EOS in Romania) was weaker than we expected at NOK 4m vs NOK 18m. Net financials were NOK 31m higher than expected, mainly due to a NOK 19m unrealized exchange loss in the quarter.
· Higher investments in seasonally slow quarter. Total investments came in at NOK 988m, higher than our NOK 700m estimate. Following this the equity ratio came in just below expectations at 26.5% and ERC came in a tick higher at NOK 20.6bn vs our NOK 20.3bn estimate.
· Share price closing in on IPO level. The whole sector has been weak YTD and B2H is down 35%. The current level is only 12% above the IPO pricing two and a half years ago at NOK 12 per share. Since then the company has made significant investments, improved cash flow and profitability, as well as gained access to some of the largest markets in Europe. Arguably the value of the company should be significantly higher. We have only made minor estimate revisions to both earnings and cash flow and B2H remains a conviction Buy in our view - we reiterate NOK 25 target price.