Arhh😁 Tror vi skal ind i 2023 før vi ser + 60 kroner.
Men jeg håber du rammer plet Odium🎯🍾🍾

Teknisk så burde vi se 40kr i august/september, men det kan komme tidligere også. Inn i 2023 mot 2024 så skal kursen være diktert av gjennomsnittlig dagrate på flåten og ikke lenger forventa inntekter.

25-40-50-60, hold på aksjer, rater opp, alle rigger på jobb.
Om det skjer i slutt 22 eller 23 samme f…
Jeg trenger å kjøpe meg videre opp for å optimalisere denne reisen.
Fortsatt god helg

Jeg tror jeg sælger de sidste Petronor aktier og går All in i shlf🤔
Det skulle jeg have gjort da jeg gik ind i shlf 6 Januar 🤯 men jeg beholdte 50 % i Pnor....DAMN😂

Anyway, Spændende tider 💪

Du hadde nå litt i NOL også :p

Ja men det er længe siden 🤯 tror desværre der kommer endnu en emi i Nol....(Mira klargøring) og måske også bollsta upgrade..
Alt for usikkert efter den sidste Fredriksen favoriserende EMI👎

Redd mange vil brenne seg på nol. De ligger så langt bak i et segment som allerede er minst et år bak ju

En digresjon, men jeg slenger meg på. Har fått med meg at Nol har hatt en god stigning den siste måneden. Personlig undrer jeg meg over hvorfor man kjøper i Nol fremfor Shelf.
Oppsiden i Nol er mindre enn i Shelf. Risikoen i Nol er større enn i Shelf. Det er iallfall slik jeg ser det.

Digger engasjementet ditt her på tråden Odium!
Med disse ratene vi begynner å se skulle mann vell kunne forvente noen nye kursmål snart.
Skulle gjerne likt å visst raten på den siste kontrakten. Kan ikke forestille meg at de binder riggen i tre år til en rate under $100k/dag.
Har du noen tanker om når Shelf vil nå $100k/dag i snitt på riggene?

Hiver inn en tanke/observasjon. Synes fremdeles det virker som at svært mange ikke vet om shelf eller casen man har her. Tror det er noe av grunnen til at andre riggselskaper ofte velges fremfor shelf fremdeles. Skrives ikke akkurat stort om selskapet i media...

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/735a43ae-1fb0-459a-80ff-2c3f10874533/gif

Blunkblunk

Rep;
Korrekt. Just breathe.
Nuttal er prime. $180? Klart.
Ta en titt på siste chart for inventory, mener han deler dette offentlig for hvermansen. Madness.
Heia verden. Good job. Amazing job.
You better pray for demand destruction.
Like literally - pray. Vi må ha demand destruction.
Registrer folk har dette som en redsel.
Nei, d er ingen vei rundt d. Vi må ha demand destruction, og oljen will make you bleed til balansen blir truffet og demand destrucion, som vi trenger, kicker inn. Supply? It’s gone. Just like magic. Pof. Kina og India er blant annet to land som vil kontre vestlig demand destruction straight in its face.

Mikkol;
Dessverre tror jeg ditt og andres ønske om en ok stabil oljepris, er bare å legge vekk. Ikke glem at alt som vil nå spille seg ut er større og bredere enn kun olje. Mye større. Way way bigger.

Er riggsjef ute?

Oi
Rip

No offence

Krakktråden, som har forstått hva asset bubbles er, delvis, men lite forståelse for markedsforhold, monetære forhold, monetær policy, kapital allokering, system leverage, og et mer vanskelig bilde av makro. T.o.m noe så simpelt som supply/demand er helt fraværende. Noe mer kompleks som moneyflow, noe som er d mest essensielle prinsippet (dessverre ikke allmen kunnskap) for investeringer i finansmarkedene er også fraværende. Profesjonelle bommer også med moneyflow. Men ellers, jo, bobler har tråden registrert. Helt korrekt.

Forsiktig m den tråden:-)
I Love Støy, blir min neste t-shorte.
Made in NY. (China)

Solid avkastning.
Lykke til videre.:-)

Vanskelig å svare på det spørsmålet. En gang i andre halvdel av 2023?. Hørt løst snakk om ~75k mot slutten av 2022.
Må si så fall sette meg ned å se på når alle rigger går av kontrakt. Noe som kunne vært et kjekt prosjekt, men det må bli litt uti juni. Har litt for mye på tapeten de neste par ukene :)

Edit: angående nol, så er de kjent som et selskap med mye innsidehandel, så kanskje noe er på gang, ikke et sekund for tidlig for å si det sånn. Men med flere emisjoner, kun to rigger med ikke spesielt god performance og en ledelse som virker å være ganske middelmådig, så tørr ikke jeg å legge penger der hvert fall.

Fra Xi forum🤔
Citat:
"Når shelf ble notert i 2018 fikk man en Mcap på 7,2 milliard, idag er den på 2,5 milliard. At man skal opp til 50kr+ iløpet av året er ikke utenkelig"
Citat slut.

Markedsvilkår/forhold idag, er totalt Bull Vs 2018...
This is just the beginning🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀

Skulle hatt din kunskap om hvordan alt henger ihop.du har nevnt tidligere at det vil gå hardest utover tech og vekst i roteringen ,og penger vil bli flyttet til råvarer.men viss det blir skikkelig krakk i tech og vekst,er det ikke fare for frykt/pannik i markede,som også vil gå utover råvarer i en periode på et tidspunkt?

Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates, LLC
Natural Resource Investors
http://gorozen.com/research/commentaries/1Q2022_Commentary

Highlighter noe. Håper dette gir litt bredere forståelse, om hva jeg har rablet om de siste 18 mnd. This is bigger than people think. Glem Russland, som nevnt et år tilbake, nevner d igjen, US inntreffer big problems i deres oljeindustri.
De fremviser data til høyeste detalj, og tegner et bilde over dette unike eventet. Økonomien, metals, PM's, gold, råvarer, olje, uranium - you name it.
Som Nuttal, viser de også oil inventory. Madness. D vil sette ord på dusinvis av mine kommentarer, bare i et dokument. Read it.:-)

"Inflation and Magazine Covers Part III
On April 20th, 2019, Bloomberg/BusinessWeek magazine published an issue entitled “IscInflation Dead?” with a dead dinosaur prominently displayed on the cover. The thrust of the cover story was that inflation had become extinct and investors should position themselves accordingly.
The cover story in our 1Q2019 letter was titled: “The Bell Has Been Run: The Contrarian Power of Magazine Covers.” We discussed why the April 2019 article was the perfect “bookend” to the infamous BusinessWeek cover story, “The Death of Equities: How Inflation is Destroying the Stock Market,” published back in August 1979. Just as the 1979 cover predicted that inflationary problems would never go away, the 2019 cover told investors that inflation would never return. The message in our cover story was simple: after declining for 40 years, inflation was about to return with a vengeance.

In our essay, we discussed the relevance of business magazine cover stories and the strong contrarian investment signal they often send. The 1979 BusinessWeek cover story was in a league of its own. If investors had done the opposite of what that cover story recommended, they would have become wealthy. Every investment projection made in that 1979 BusinessWeek issue proved to be incorrect. Instead of betting that inflation was about to worsen,
investors should have bet that inflation was about to peak and then spend the next 40 years declining. Instead of buying inflationary hard assets, investors should have unloaded them as quickly as possible. Instead of selling stocks and bonds, investors should have taken the 1979 BusinessWeek cover story as a golden opportunity to literally “backup the truck” and buy as many financial assets as their margin accounts allowed. We speculated in our essay that the 2019 Bloomberg/BusinessWeek cover story would be as important (and wrong) as the 1979 cover story and that investors should use its strong
contrarian signal to significantly increase their exposure to hard, inflationary-sensitive assets -- an asset class that had become as unpopular as stocks and bonds were when the first BusinessWeek cover story was published over 40 years ago. In our 1Q2020 letter, we reminded our readers about the magazine cover and how the massive explosion in government spending and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, all in response to the deepening COVID-19 crisis, practically guaranteed an upcoming inflationary surge. One of the funny things about business magazine covers is that in the short term their predictions are often perceived as correct. Three years passed between the publication of the 1979 BusinessWeek cover story and the beginning of the great bull market in stocks.
The Financial Times ran its very famous “The Death of Gold” cover story on November 1998 and again three years passed before the great gold bull market commenced. If the same time-lag materialized again, we predicted that three years might pass before accelerating inflation become a recognized problem. Global inflation began to unexpectedly accelerate last May and by March 2022 the US consumer price index hit 8.5% -- a rate not seen in 40
years -- exactly three years after the publication of the 2019 cover story. Everyone now understands the severity of our inflation problems. Even the US Federal Reserve, which spent all of last year predicting that inflationary pressures were “transitory”, now admits the problem is real.

We believe today’s inflationary pressures are neither transitory nor moderate. We believe
inflation will intensify as we progress through the decade.

The 1979 BusinessWeek cover story declared that inflation and poor financial returns would extend far into the future.
Why did they predict that? The reason is simple. As the chart shows below, inflation and
interest rates had been rising for the previous 40 years. All the BusinessWeek editors did was express confidence in a trend that had been in place for two generations. Not only did the 1979 cover story tip investors off that a huge trend reversal was fast approaching, but also that a powerful new trend, lasting far longer than anyone thought, was about to start. The decline of inflation, the fall of interest rates, and the surge in the prices of financial assets have been happening for 40 years. And just the like in August 1979, the April 2019 Bloomberg/BusinessWeek cover story sent investors an incredibly strong contrarian signal that not only was a huge trend reversal about to take place, but that inflation was about to return as a serious problem that could last for decades. The deflationary trend of the last 40 years is now over. A new inflationary trend is in place and will last longer and carry on farther than anyone expects.

Huge changes in investment
flows are about to take place with large implications.

Although inflation-sensitive assets have already begun to radically outperform bonds and the general stock market, investors’ interests in these assets remains subdued. Pundits, market analysts, and investors remain in a state of confusion and hope that the trends of the previous cycle will return. Very few
market commentators or investors have taken serious steps to protect themselves from the massive trend change that has now taken place.
Given the significant amount of money printed and the huge amount of debt now accumulated throughout the world, we believe the trend change in inflation as telegraphed by the 2019 BusinessWeek cover story will last decades. We also believe the recent outperformance
of inflation-sensitive assets will last for years as well. There is still plenty of opportunity to not only protect yourself from the ravages of inflation, but to profit by it as well.

We continue to believe this energy crisis has many years left to run, and profits remain immense for investors establishing positions today. The US natural gas market will be the next energy market to fall into full-blown crisis. We remain wildly bullish on North American natural gas and we continue to recommend large exposure to natural gas focused E&P companies.

Our biggest short term problem is that we are now running out of spare oil pumping capacity. In every prior energy shortage, including the dual oil crises of the 1970s and the rally of 2008, OPEC maintained ample spare capacity that could quickly be brought online. In past letters, we explained why the second half of 2022 would mark the first time in history that global demand bumped up against total pumping capacity.

The record deficit we are now experiencing is the result of a decade of chronic underinvestment combined with relentlessly strong demand. Unfortunately, reversing these factors will take years—an easy and quick fix to the energy crisis is nearly impossible.

Demand was likely to rebound much faster than supply, pushing oil markets into severe deficit and resulting in strong inventory
drawdowns. Since then, inventories collapsed by 1.2 m b/d, the fastest sustained rate in history. In their latest release, the IEA estimates that OECD inventories ended February at less than 4.1 bn bbl, the lowest absolute level since 2007 and the lowest level relative to 10-year seasonal averages since our dataset begins in 1980. This all took place before Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th.

Years of underinvestment in upstream oil and gas projects has produced the present deficit. Trying to reverse this shortfall will take years of upstream capital spending at rates double and triple of what we are spending today. Until we reverse this shortfall in upstream capital spending, we will not fix the underlying problem.

Unfortunately, wind and solar are intermittent sources of power that suffer from very poor energy efficiency. Lithium-ion batteries, necessary for both buffering intermittent renewables and powering electric vehicles, are also extremely energy intensive to mine and manufacture. Our research tells us that neither wind, solar nor electric vehicles, because of their poor energy efficiency, will live up to their promise of replacing oil and gas.

In the first quarter, we estimate that even after the historic revisions, the IEA continues to underestimate demand by as much as 800,000 b/d. If this demand continues – and we have every reason to believe it will – the crude market is even tighter than most people currently realize.

The current energy crisis will not be solved until capital comes back into the industry in significant quantities. Normally high commodity prices and improved profitability help attract capital, but ESG pressures are keeping that from happening.

Once investors and institutions realize the energy market has fundamentally changed and the decade of cheap, abundant energy is over, the amount of capital that rushes into this sector could be huge. The global energy crisis has just started, and it will take many years to fix. For those that make investments today, the rewards could be immense."

Skulle være en generell kommentar, og ikke et svar til deg Mrhifi.:-)

Fult mulig, som er grunnen hvorfor jeg touchet på bear innspill noe tid tilbake. Man må være forberedt. Råvarer hadde 1-2 år med pullback tilbake i 2001-2002 før launchmode.
Selloffs kan dra alt med ned, leverage i markedet er enormt, og likvidering kan foregå i samtlige sektorer, + frykt som du nevner, men igjen, jeg vil nok merke den mer da jeg også har tung eksponering mot USA, (I do not mind) kontra for de som er kun eksponert i Oslo, og spesifikt SHLF. Etter mine observasjoner siste 12 mnd er amerikanske olje aksjer mer sensitiv mot market sell offs(hvor olje også dras ned), kontra SHLF. Men dette er d ingen fasit på. Jeg registrerer at selektive råvare relaterte aksjer har allerede decoupled fra aksjemarkedets bevegelser, og dette er et resultat av rotasjon.

The Big Trend is what matters, kidpoker.

Add on; Hva som spesifikt vil skje og når med bevegelsene mellom aksjemarkedet og råvarer kan man ikke konstatere, bare vær forberedt på volatilitet. D kommer også selvfølgelig an på hva man kjøper. Et big-tech selskap med en massiv business vil nok klare seg ok, i d minste fundamentalt, aksjekursen derimot kan bli en anen sak, kontra noe super high growth aka som noen av oss liker å si; Ponzi growth. Markedsforholdene vi har nå entret favoriserer ikke vekst. You want to hedge. En komplett ny huge trend materialiserer seg, og trenden vi går ut ifra, har uten tvil påvirket psykologien til den mest profesjonelle du kan tenke deg. Den har vart i 40 år. Som forrige inflasjons syklus, som varte i 40 år. Som rapporten over viser til, d finnes profesjonelle markedsdeltagere som oppriktig ber på sine kne om at den gamle trenden skal komme tilbake. Ref kommentaren min sist bare i går "Profesjonelle bommer også med moneyflow."
Well, I hate(love) to say it, it wont. For a long time. Party time over.

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/7b7a7e58-1499-41d4-a7da-cc2856ba73fa

;-)

Takk for svar. Foreløpig har rotasjon fungert utmerket på shlf og den urealiserte gevinsten min.høydeskrekk er vel det eneste som kan rote det til nå:)

RO: Thanks for sharing!

Om rater:
En MLT-116C (1980/2013) fra GSP til 95K$/dag offshore Tyrkia annonsert denne uken.

mvh

Vil det ikke være naturlig at aksjer som Apple, tesla, Microsoft og annen big tech nå utvikler seg til å bli utbytteaksjer og priset deretter? Altså at feks Apple skal ned <$25 for å kunne gi et halvbra utbytte?
Og hvis dette skjer. Kan vi risikere at energiaksjene som shelf blir priset som vekstsksjer med utbytter <1%?

Trekker tilbake det jeg sa om tesla. De er et produksjonsselskap kamuflert som et techselskap, så de tror jeg vil gjøre det bedre enn de andre techselskapene hvis jeg har rett.

Did someone say inflation when touching 85% Marketed Utilization? Well, boom boom😉
https://ihsmarkit.com/products/offshore-oil-rig-data.html
World wide 86,2%.
It's showtime!

Bare å sitte rolig å vente. Denne og Borr tikker opp mnd for mnd
PS tok også et lodd i DVD, kan være et skikkelig vinnerlodd

Friske takter her i dag. Skal vi få en etablering over 20 nå?

En så lenge så tror jeg tror nok dette er stanging i tøff motstand rundt et sakte stigende tak i trendkanal.
https://postimg.cc/VdXsfDK0
Positive er at vi ikke har reagert ned ved møte av forventa veldig tøff motstand

Jeg laster opp i denne

Kan det være Shelf, som ser at det er butikk i dette.
Kommer vel evt melding på det.


https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/oljeservice/2022/05/24/7872079/etterlatte-borerigger-far-jobb?internal_source=sistenytt

Markedet for oppjekkbare borerigger (jack-ups) er i ferd med å ta seg bra opp, mye takket være høy etterspørsel i Midtøsten.

Crude oil inventories are down to a dangerously low point across Europe, North America, and OECD Asia just as OPEC+ spare production capacity has dwindled to the lowest levels since April 2020.
https://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_inventories_down_to_dangerously_low_point-24-may-2022-169095-article/

https://www.oedigital.com/news/496784-keppel-o-m-secures-three-year-bareboat-charters-for-jack-up-rig-duo

Interessant beskrivelse: The shallow-water drilling rigs will go on a charter with an unnamed drilling firm in the Middle East. Keppel said the charterer was "an established drilling company."

Som Eric Nuttall sier.
Den mest bullishe nyhet er når verden innser at Opec og Saudi ikke kan redde oss. No more sparecapacity.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Aramco-Cant-Add-Oil-Production-Capacity-Faster-Than-Promised.html

Modig gjort på over 19.
Siste året har shlf steget med over 300%, bare slått av soff (i Oslo).
I år har shlf steget neste 130%. Nummer 7 på den listen og litt bak borr som er opp 156% så langt i år.
Hva som skal stoppe denne nå kan ikke jeg se. En prosent opp mandag og en til idag, fortsetter det slik blir det russiske prosenter til slutt.

mvh

...og når gjennomsnittlig funnrate er rundt 25% sier det seg at det må drilles mange hull hvis produksjonen skal økes.

The average successful discovery rate for the oil and gas industry is much lower than that, however, at 24.8 percent, according to Bloomberg. (også oilprice.com)

Forresten #1: Lett underholdning følger.
Normally, cyclical industries have pricing power for a few quarters each decade. What if they have pricing power for the next two decades??
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2022/05/16/the-fed-is-fuct/

Forresten #2: Synd det der med Riggsjefen, virket som en OK type.

mvh