Oljeprisen forventes å fortsette på høyt prisnivå, det er for lite reserve produksjonskapasitet:

High Crude Prices Are Here To Stay
By Irina Slav - Jul 24, 2022, 6:00 PM CDT
Both OPEC and U.S. shale producers maintain a cautious approach toward production growth.
OPEC+’ very limited spare capacity could further create upward risk for oil
Sanctions on Russia are unlikely to be dropped in the short term.


Crude oil has been on a decline over the past few weeks as growing worry about a looming global recession weighs it down. But oil is not going as far down as drivers across the world would like it to go—or as far as politicians up for reelection would like it to go. Barring a dramatic event of demand destruction, oil is going to remain expensive for the observable future.

OPEC and its precious spare capacity

The oil-producing cartel has repeatedly signaled that it is in no rush to deploy its spare capacity to boost global supply and bring down prices. One reason for this is the prices themselves: Saudi Arabia has been raising its oil prices for Asian buyers for several months in a row now because it can. The other reason is that spare capacity is limited.

Earlier this week, when it released its latest Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC warned that global oil demand is set to rise to levels that would test its production capacity. Known as the “call on OPEC crude,” the amount of oil that the cartel needs to produce in order to cover global demand could rise to 32 million barrels daily in 2023, OPEC said. That would be up from 28.7 million bpd as of this June, which means OPEC would need to boost its production by over 3 million bpd within the next year and a half to cover demand, coming mostly from China and India. And it may not have the spare capacity to do it. Indeed, Reuters earlier this year cited analysts warning that this spare capacity could slip below 1 million bpd by the end of 2022.