McConnell says coronavirus-aid deal done, but no votes until Monday
Last Updated: Dec. 20, 2020 at 6:22 p.m. ET
First Published: Dec. 19, 2020 at 4:03 p.m. ET
By Jonathan Nicholson
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Lawmakers look to pass another short-term measure to keep the government open past midnight

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell walks to his office from the Senate floor on Friday. AFP/GETTY IMAGES
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After days of frenetic talks and only hours ahead of a government shutdown, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said late Sunday a bipartisan deal had been reached on an almost $900 billion coronavirus relief package.

“Moments ago, in consultation with our committees, the four leaders of the Senate and the House finalized an agreement,” McConnell said on the Senate floor.

“Make no mistake about it, this agreement is far from perfect. But it will deliver emergency relief to a nation in the throes of a genuine emergency,” said Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer.


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No votes are expected on the package until Monday, though, as McConnell noted its text was still being finalized. The House would vote first and its only vote Sunday was to be on a one-day stopgap government funding bill.

The stimulus bill is expected to include the revival or extension of several parts of the CARES Act passed in March. Direct payments to individuals of $600, half the amount of spring payments, would be included, as well as an extension of pandemic-related jobless benefits and a revival of a federal add-on jobless payment, this time of around $300 for 10 weeks. The Paycheck Protection Program that gave forgivable loans to small businesses would also be revived.

McConnell said the package would also include “huge sums” of money to help with COVD-19 vaccine distribution as well as “billions and billions” of dollars to get students back to school safely.

Congress gave itself through Sunday to reach a new deal by extending the government’s funding authority for another two days late Friday. Passing another short-term funding bill tonight would give them until midnight Monday to finish things up. The idea is to graft the fiscal stimulus package of around $900 billion onto a $1.4 trillion bill to fund government operations through 2021, for a resulting in an overall $2.3 trillion total package.

The announcement of an agreement Sunday was in stark contrast with Saturday, when a disagreement over restricting the Fed’s emergency lending powers appeared to be a major roadblock.

Sen. Pat Toomey, the Pennsylvania Republican who had pushed for the language to prohibit restarting central bank loan programs started under the March CARES Act without congressional approval, said he was satisfied with a compromise worked out with Democrats.

Schumer said the agreement on the Fed language was central to getting a bill done

Kilde :

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-lending-still-a-snag-as-washington-lawmakers-say-they-inch-closer-to-coronavirus-aid-deal-11608411789?mod=newsviewer_click

Foreløpig tyder det neste på at utviklede vaksiner også biter på mutert utgave i UK og en annen mutert i Sør Afrika. Men dette vites ikke sikkert før dette forhold er analysert. Kanskje reduseres effekten ved mutasjon.

Uansett, det tok to-tre måneder før man fikk erfart den raske spredningen som UKs muterte virus medførte. Dvs. denne iboende treghet og raskere spredning vil kloden oppleve i økende grad fremover. Etterspørselen etter olje må således vurderes bli angrepet fra mutasjonstrusler, hvor vaksinene til enhver tid må designes for å matche de genetiske endringene. Vil trolig medføre at en allerede dedisert vaksine ikke kan settes i produksjon i skala ala milliarder, men i i mindre volum. Riktignok vil flere legemiddelselskap kjøre parallelt, men usikkerheten rundt vaksinens effekt vil tynge markedene i lang tid fremover.

For oljeselskapene betyr dette at planlagte operasjoner og nye prosjekt blir satt enda lengre på hold.

Ja, jeg leser og forstår at raffineriene i Asia går så det kviner og at etterspørsel for denne verdensdelen synes stigende. Samlet sett finner jeg fremdeles stor usikkerhet i veien videre for oljen. Skulle det finnes en trang pasasje, vil trolig prisleiet ligge i det intervallet som Russland tilstreber:

Novak says Russia backs OPEC+ 500,000 bpd oil output hike from February
https://in.reuters.com/article/oil-opec-russia-idINKBN28Z0AQ

Neste OPEC+ møte 4. Januar vil bli avgjørende. Allerede nå kan man med stor grad av sannsynlighet anta at også UAE m/flere OPEC+ produsenter kommer til å tiltre Russlands syn. Dvs. Norges prod. kutt oppheves fra januar med ~300.000 f/d. OPEC+ øker med 500.000 f/d for januar og 500.000 f/d fra februar. Samlet sett, hvordan vil markedet reagere på noe slikt – gitt koronaen fortsetter i uforminsket styrke? Hva vil skje etter at euforien og tillit til vaksinene er blir satt under press og tvilen øker?

Man skal aldri forsøke seg på å spå oljeprisen. Enkelt og greit fordi dette er en håpløs øvelse. Jeg forsøker like fullt å fremsette en tese om at oljeprisen har gått for mye og i for stor grad har psykologi og eufori som basis.

Fra januar 2021, ref. 4. januar - vil markedet kunne oppleve oljeprisens sanne ansikt, hvor endringer i seg selv er et kjennetegn på oljepris.

Implementerer OPEC+ de tiltenkte økningene for de første mnd. av 2021 og vaksinene ikke rulles ut fortere enn allerede skissert, se opp for oljepris i intervallet $45-50.