analyse fra DNB på kurs 50 , er forskellen at de i 2018 havde lånt penge til AXA og idag arbejder for dem der går short.
Syntes det er en skandale at der kan være så stor forskel. AXA har fuldt sine forventninger, dog har Corona givet dårligere resultat, som vil blive ændret når vaccine starter og i løbet af foråret, blir meget normalt igen.
Gæld skal altid betales og AXA har betydeligt bedre redskaber til at inddrive gæld i 2020 end i 2018 og mindre løn udgifter m.m.

AXA - DNB med fersk analyse, kursmål kr 50 .-
AXA
26.07.2018 kl 00:44
4134
AXACTOR
Set for scale benefits to materialise
The bottom line was only just in the black in Q2, given
the uptick in revenues and but increased costs. We
have reduced our 2018–2020e net profit by EUR6m–
7m, while we see positive signs from the solid
collection performance on NPLs (5% higher than its
business case) and REOs (42% better than business
case). With the EUR93m REOs financing coming in
place, we estimate Axactor’s current capex capacity to
be around EUR450m, which when put to use could
help extract scale benefits and improve margins going
forward. We reiterate our BUY recommendation and
NOK50 target price.
Collection performance well above 100%. NPL collections was 5% higher than the
company’s business case assumed for NPLs (which uses the same assumptions as
the ERC collection curves), and 43% more for REOs. Axactor has sold 1,043 units
YTD (27% more than its business case assumptions, worth EUR47.7m, which is some
42% above the business case assumptions. The sales have been executed at a
higher money multiple (higher price) and faster than what it had assumed. At end-Q2,
6,153 assets units remain in Axactor’s REOs inventory.
We have reduced our 2018–2020e net profit by EUR6m–7m, corresponding to
reductions of 28% for 2018e, 9% for 2019e and 8% for 2020e. Our reduced estimates
primarily reflect an increase in the company’s assumed amortisation relative to the
change in assumed collections on the back of the higher amortisation percentage in
the Q2 report. Despite higher collections than the we expected in Q2, we still use the
ERC curves provided by the company to model revenues, which suggest somewhat
lower collections versus our previous estimates.
BUY and NOK50 target price reiterated. We find Axactor attractively valued at a
2019e EV/EBIT of 8.1x, in combination with our expectation of strong earnings
growth”? and a healthy revenue mix with a relatively high share of Debt Collection
earnings. We expect the bottom line to improve significantly going forward as the
current capex capacity of around NOK450m is put to use (close to doubling the
current book value of portfolios of EUR539m), increasing revenues, while the costs
are relatively unchanged. We also expect a significant improvement in the quarterly
results over the course of 2018, as the platform established in 2016 and 2017 sees
higher margins from better utilisation and scale benefits materialise due to high NPL.